This year shall be a witness to a politically vital battle. There are high stakes with the polls in 9 states that will set the stage for the 2024 lok sabha elections next year. At the same time, it will be crucial for the opposition parties who need to form a united opposition at this time. The elections shall take place in states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Mizoram.
At the same time, if things shall be right then Jammu and Kashmir may also have an assembly election. So, it won’t be wrong to call 2023 the semi-final before the final battle of 2024.
Dynamics in Congress-ruled Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan
Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are the two Congress-held states that would undergo polls. So, it is a battle of survival for the party. Although, the party did get a sense of relief after the win in Himachal Pradesh.
In the desert state of Rajasthan, Congress won 100 seats in the 200-seat assembly restricting BJP to 73 in 2018. Before that in 2013, BJP formed a government by winning 163 seats. Consequently, it is a direct battle of power between Congress and the BJP. Since 1990, the state has witnessed a swing each time. Moreover, the internal rift between CM Gehlot and Deputy CM Sachin Pilot has been openly seen.
For Chhattisgarh, Congress won 68 seats in 2018 among the 90-seat assembly. It removed the BJP after its 15-year reign leaving it with 15 seats. Even in the recent Bhanupratappur by-polls, the ruling Congress saved its seat.
The situation in BJP-ruled MP and Karnataka
After the 2018 polls, MP has undergone all sorts of political drama. In those polls, Congress’s Kamal Nath became the CM ending the 15-year reign of the saffron party. But, former CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan returned to power after two years in 2020 when 22 Congress MLAs resigned to join BJP. Also, popular leader Jyotiraditya Scindia switched sides.
For Karnataka, the drama has been no less. In the 2018 polls, no party got a clear majority. Consequently, BS Yeddyurappa became a CM. But, he was not able to secure a majority. So, Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) allied to form a government. It was headed by HD Kumaraswamy as the chief minister. After 14 months many MLAs switched sides and the government fell. Consequently, BS Yediyurappa again became the CM in 2019. But, the saffron party changed the CM and Basavaraj Bommai was sworn in. The state is particularly important for BJP as it is the only state ruled by them in the South.
Stakes in Telangana and North Eastern States
Telangana has been ruled by K Chandrasekhar Rao-led Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) from the time it was formed. KCR has changed its party’s name to Bharat Rashtra Samithi to extend its reach to the national level. While BJP is making attempts to gain a space in the state. But, TRS got good results in the bypolls.
In the case of Tripura, BJP came to power in 2018 with 35 seats from 60 member Assembly. Later, the party changed the CM from Biplab Deb to Manik Saha. Winning again won’t be easy for BJP as TMC has entered the political scene in the state. On the other hand, PM Modi laid foundations and inaugurated several development projects. Those projects have a total worth of Rs 4,350 crore in Agartala. Moreover, a roadshow was done by the party in the city.
For Meghalaya, Congress got the most seats in 2018. But, it did not have a majority to form a government. So, BJP secured 2 seats allied with the National People’s Party (NPP) to form the government. But, the fight will be difficult this year as the NPP will contest these polls alone. In Nagaland, BJP allied with Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) before the last elections and formed the government.
Lastly, in Mizoram, the Mizo National Front is in power with 26 seats out of the total 40. Congress got only 5 and BJP got its first seat in the state. MNF is a member of the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA). Alongside, it’s an ally of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre.
Summing up the polls,
The political states in 9 state polls this year are high. The win will set the tone for general elections in 2024. Also, it will be crucial for Congress and BJP to preserve their states’ by winning new ones.
