Several factors could affect the outcome of the Karnataka election, according to an analysis of ground reports and pre-poll surveys. One of the main factors is the perceived corruption of the incumbent BJP government, which has not distinguished itself in any significant way except for the digitization of land records.
Another factor is the thin spread of the Congress votes across the state, which is unlike the more concentrated vote for the BJP in the five other geopolitical zones of the state. Additionally, the spoil factor of the Janata Dal (Secular) could also be a factor due to its proven strength in the Vokkaliga belt of Old Mysore with its 60 seats.
The BJP’s consolidation of the Hindu vote has also unraveled in various degrees on Karnataka’s soil, confined to 21 coastal seats where a historically higher profile of the Muslim community in business and society has provided the BJP with the right soil to polarize the Hindu vote. Finally, the BJP’s denial of seats to prominent Lingayat leaders from its fold could also affect the outcome, as Congress has welcomed these leaders to its party and nominated them from their home seats.
