The recent tussle within the Congress party in Karnataka over the Chief Minister’s post has finally been resolved, with former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah emerging as the frontrunner. However, the dynamics of this power-sharing arrangement indicate that the longevity of the détente will largely depend on the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both in Karnataka and on a national level.
DK Shivakumar, the Karnataka Congress president, put in significant effort and resources into the race for the Chief Minister’s position. However, the pending Income Tax and Enforcement Directorate cases related to assets disproportionate to his known sources of income pose a potential threat to his political career. The central government may aggressively pursue these cases, and the optics of a Chief Minister embroiled in corruption allegations could harm the Congress party’s prospects in the upcoming 2024 elections. This factor has always been a significant disadvantage for Shivakumar in the race for the top job in Karnataka.
On the other hand, Siddaramaiah enjoys widespread popularity and support among Congress legislators in Karnataka. As the tallest mass leader among the state’s lawmakers, his appeal transcends regional boundaries. Furthermore, his previous experience as Chief Minister, having completed a full term, worked in his favor. Siddaramaiah’s tested leadership and administrative skills made him a strong contender for the position.
The choice of DK Shivakumar as Chief Minister could have potentially alienated other caste groups within the party, as he belongs to the OBC Vokkaliga caste. Given the Congress party’s victory in the recent elections, where they garnered a historic vote share of over 42 percent across various social sections, they could not risk estranging non-Vokkaliga voices. Hence, appointing Siddaramaiah as Chief Minister and accommodating Shivakumar as his deputy aimed to balance these caste dynamics and maintain broad-based support.
Shivakumar’s tough bargaining during negotiations forced the Congress to make an exception to the “one man, one post” rule, allowing him to continue as the state Congress president and Deputy Chief Minister. This grants him significant influence over the cabinet and maintains his firm grip on the party. Additionally, it is expected that Shivakumar will secure key portfolios for himself and his close associates to ensure a balanced power distribution within the cabinet.
The compromise solution achieved by Congress appears to be the best possible outcome for both contenders. It prevents Siddaramaiah from having unchecked control, as seen during his previous term, while also ensuring Shivakumar’s influential position within the cabinet and party. This arrangement safeguards the power balance and sets the stage for potential changes post-2024 elections if necessary.
However, Congress now faces the challenge of ensuring representation from all regions and social groups in the cabinet to maintain a balanced image in the lead-up to the 2024 polls. Optics play a crucial role in politics, and the party must address this aspect to strengthen its position.
Ultimately, Indian politics can be unpredictable, and circumstances may compel Congress to reconsider this compromise formula after the 2024 elections. As a year is a significant duration in politics, the party must carefully navigate the evolving landscape to secure its position and prospects in the future.
