Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban has deteriorated since the militant group’s return to power in Afghanistan. Pakistan had supported the Taliban clandestinely in their fight against US-led forces, expecting cooperation in reining in Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a domestic offshoot. However, some factions within the Taliban oppose helping Pakistan combat the TTP and seek to establish ties with Pakistan’s archrival, India. This instability compounds Pakistan’s existing economic and political crises, including the threat of default, rampant inflation, and a military crackdown on former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party.
Pakistan had believed that the Taliban, closely connected to the TTP, could persuade the group to halt attacks on Pakistan. However, the TTP’s militant activities within Pakistan escalated, with numerous attacks in recent years, including a suicide bombing in Peshawar that killed over 100 people. Some key Taliban members, including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, have advocated for distancing the Taliban from Pakistan and establishing relations with India. This divergence in positions within the Taliban has strained the relationship with Pakistan.
Pakistan’s miscalculation in relying on the Taliban to subdue the TTP has had unintended consequences. Some Taliban fighters have joined the TTP, bringing along weapons left behind by the US, and hundreds of released Taliban prisoners have returned to Pakistan to participate in militant activities. Meanwhile, the Taliban is disappointed that Pakistan has not officially recognized their regime, although doing so would be challenging due to international sanctions and the need for IMF approval for a bailout package.
Pakistan is grappling with other pressing issues, including political tensions, inflation, and stalled negotiations with the IMF. The country’s support for the Taliban in Afghanistan has drawn criticism from the international community, including calls to remove its major non-NATO ally status with the US. Pakistan’s former strategic bet on the Taliban has not yielded the expected results, as the group asserts its independence and refuses to comply with Pakistan’s interests.
In hindsight, the confidence shown by Lieutenant-General Faiz Hameed of Inter-Services Intelligence during his visit to Kabul’s Serena Hotel appears misplaced. Pakistan failed to anticipate the Taliban’s shift in stance and its determination to pursue an independent course once it no longer required a sanctuary in Pakistan.
