Imran Khan, the former prime minister of Pakistan, is facing increasing isolation and pressure as the country’s military launches a widespread crackdown on his political party. Following attacks on military-owned properties and protests after Khan’s brief detention, over 10,000 individuals associated with Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have been arrested in police raids. Several prominent leaders are now in jail, and numerous PTI members have resigned in recent days.
While the government and military publicly state that they are holding accountable those who attacked state-owned property, there is an underlying recognition that Khan’s popularity poses a challenge. The military aims to diminish his party’s influence ahead of the upcoming elections scheduled for October at the latest. Khan’s current predicament stems from his attempts to challenge the military hierarchy, a red line for Pakistan’s most powerful institution, which has exerted significant control over the country for much of its post-independence history.
Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior fellow at King’s College London and an expert on Pakistan’s military, suggests that “this is the end of the road for Imran Khan.” However, the question remains whether the military can erode his support base.
Khan’s ability to communicate with the outside world and rally support is being undermined. The internet at his Lahore residence was abruptly cut off during a scheduled call with British lawmakers concerned about Pakistan’s political, economic, and security situation. His movements have been restricted as police have confiscated most of his armored vehicles. Furthermore, Khan and his wife have reportedly been placed on a no-fly list, barring them from leaving the country.
The military’s dilemma lies in Khan’s unmatched popularity. Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London, suggests that Khan would win an election by a landslide, leaving the army with no credible alternative to support. However, the military is unlikely to remove the elected government and assume direct control, given the country’s economic challenges and the unpopularity of past coup leaders.
The relationship between Khan and the military deteriorated, particularly after he attempted to exert control over military promotions. Khan opposed the appointment of the head of Pakistan’s spy agency, supporting one of his allies instead. This confrontation with the military establishment contributed to Khan’s ousting as prime minister.
Khan’s recent statements blaming the turmoil on the military and comparing the situation to Hitler’s rise have further strained his relationship with the armed forces. Public sympathy for the military has increased following the attacks on army property and officers’ homes, with banners, posters, and rallies expressing support for the armed forces.
The tactics employed against Khan are reminiscent of the military’s past approach to dealing with dissenting politicians and parties. Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, suggests that if history is repeating itself, it does not bode well for Khan, his party, or Pakistan’s democracy.
Imran Khan is facing a challenging and isolating situation as the military crackdown on his party intensifies. The outcome of this power struggle will have significant implications for the future of Pakistan’s political landscape and democratic processes.
