According to seven of the ten exit polls, Karnataka is heading for a hung assembly, with the possibility of HD Kumaraswamy’s Janata Dal-Secular playing the role of the kingmaker. The majority mark stands at 113 seats in the 224-seat assembly. However, exit polls do not always get it right, and two exit polls have predicted an outright victory for the Congress, while one has predicted the same for the BJP.
News Nation-CGS has predicted that the ruling BJP will cross the majority mark with 114 seats, while the Congress will win 86 seats, and the JD(S) will win 21 seats. The Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat exit poll has also given an edge to the BJP, predicting that it will emerge as the single largest party with anything between 94 and 117 seats. The Congress, it said, will get 91-106 seats, and the JD(S) will get 14-24 seats.
Five other exit polls are counting on a Congress win or a pole position as the single largest party. India Today-Axis My India expects the Congress to win 122 to 140 seats and the BJP to get 62-80 seats. Times Now-ETG is predicting that Congress will touch the majority mark — barely. It predicts the party will win 113 seats, and the BJP will get 85. Twenty-three seats will go to the Janata Dal-Secular, according to its prediction.
The counting of votes will be held on Saturday, and the triangular contest for Karnataka has ended. The Congress and HD Kumaraswamy had partnered in 2018 to keep the BJP out of power, but the alliance government lasted for a little over a year before collapsing. This time, both parties have brushed off the possibility of allying.
In 2006, Kumaraswamy tied up with the BJP, but the government lasted for less than a year before President’s rule was declared in the state. The government had collapsed after Kumaraswamy refused to hand over the top post to BS Yeddyurappa, who was his deputy. To retaliate, the BJP had withdrawn support, reducing the Kumaraswamy government to a minority.
