Former Karnataka Chief Minister and Congress leader Siddaramaiah is the most popular choice for the next Chief Minister of Karnataka, followed by incumbent Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai of the BJP, while Janata Dal-Secular leader HD Kumaraswamy and Congress’s DK Shivakumar follow. Interestingly, BJP’s BS Yediyurappa, who has served as Chief Minister four times, ranks low at number 5, despite being the face of the party in the state for several years.
However, the survey reveals that the chief ministerial candidate may not be the most critical factor for voters, with the majority of respondents (56%) stating that they give more importance to the party, followed by 38% of voters who vote for the candidate. Only 4% of voters said they vote according to the chief minister’s face. The Congress and JDS voters consider the party the most significant factor, while BJP voters are divided on this issue.
Moreover, the Congress fares better than the BJP in terms of voters’ perception of key metrics. Respondents consider the BJP to be more corrupt (59%) than the Congress (35%) and JDS (3%), despite campaigning against corruption nationwide. The BJP is also rated as “more nepotistic” (59%) than the Congress (30%) and JDS (8%). The survey further reveals that the ruling party is more plagued by factionalism (55%) than the Congress (30%) and JDS (12%). On the other hand, the Congress is seen as the best party for Karnataka’s development (47% vs BJP’s 37% and JDS’ 14%) and for maintaining communal harmony (49% vs BJP’s 34% and JDS’ 14%).
The survey also analyzed the voting patterns of different castes and communities. The Lingayats, traditional supporters of the BJP, remain firmly with the party (67%), while the Vokkaligas are split between the Congress (34%) and JDS (36%). Muslims (59%) are more inclined to vote for Congress, despite the Karnataka government scrapping the 4% backward class quota for Muslims and diverting it to Lingayats and Vokkaliggas.
The survey also assessed the anti-incumbency factor, revealing that disapproval of the BJP government is higher among the poor, the lower middle class, and rural voters. The Congress is more popular (50%) with poor voters than the BJP (23%), while the BJP (46%) remains more popular than the Congress (31%) among affluent voters.
The survey found that the BJP scores slightly higher than the Congress and JDS in reaching out to voters, but Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra drew slightly more attention than the BJP’s Vikas Sankalp Yatra and the JDS’ Pancharatna Ratha Yatra. However, the BJP and JDS registered more participation in their yantras. Overall, the survey provides valuable insights into the public mood in Karnataka ahead of the state election on May 10 and its verdict three days later.
