Multiple northeastern states shall undergo elections in 2023 including Tripura. For the polls, TMC, CPI(M), Congress, and other regional parties can have a clash of power.
In terms of strategy, the CPI(M) leader held a Press Conference and announced that he is open to joining an anti-BJP platform by the Opposition. It means that they opened their doors for seat sharing with their rival party Congress in the state too.
Old rivalry or New alliance
When the BJP defeated Congress at the center, the dynamics began to change in Tripura too. The voter base of Congress turned towards BJP against the ruling CPI(M).
Consequently, in the 2018 Tripura Elections, the performance of Congress was poor. Also, the vote share of CPI(M) decreased with BJP forming the government.
However, as the term of the saffron party comes to end there is a factor of anti-incumbency rising against it. In this situation, Congress and CPI(M) are considering it as an opportunity to gain the state.
It won’t be easy for anyone to defeat the BJP which has compelled them to start making changes for making new alliances. Even the parties have no option other than letting off their hostilities to unseat the BJP in the state ahead of the 2024 elections.
Will this new alliance in Tripura work?
The rivalry between Congress and CPI(M) in the state goes back to 1951-52. So, it won’t be easy to come to an agreement with each other for any purpose. Just the objective of defeating the BJP is the reason for the rivals to come together.
Still, the parties are making attempts to make a place for the new changes. For instance, the top leaders of the two parties came together to celebrate India’s 75 years of Independence. A month ago, a total of 6 parties with them issued a joint letter. It was a letter urging the voters to make BJP lose Tripura this year.
The ‘West Bengal’ Lesson
In the 2016 assembly elections, CPI(M) and Congress left their past rivalry and made a pre-poll alliance to defeat TMC in West Bengal. They called it a ‘Seat-sharing agreement’ and not an ‘alliance’ that failed due to a lack of coordination between them on the ground. This alliance harmed the Left Front with reduced seats and a part of their vote share went to the BJP.
If 2016 was bad, the 2021 alliance proved to be the worst for the left party. Consequently, in the 2019 National elections and 2022 state elections, the BJP got benefits. The saffron party became the major opposition party to CPI(M) and Congress.
The situation and Conditions for ‘Alliance’
The CPI(M) leader Yechury announced in the press conference that they will not make an alliance leaving their Left Front. In clear words, he said that the Left party will not repeat the ‘Bengal Mistake’. So, they are open to seat adjustment and not alliance.
The conditions are similar to the one in Bengal, apart from BJP getting the benefit that TMC got in West Bengal. The past bears out that the voters have not given any major support to such alliances. Voters are intelligent enough to differentiate between constructive and time-serving alliances. For instance, the SP and Congress Alliance or SP and BSP alliance in UP did not bring a great response. Consequently, CPI(M) and Congress are not making an open show.
Some other problems with their alliance could be that in the past Congress took a good seat share even though the CPI(M) was more strong in the state. In some places, the candidates contested against each other from both parties despite the alliance. Lastly, the ground situation did not have adequate coordination between them.
Summing up,
The situations in West Bengal and Tripura have been quite similar. But, the CPI(M) seems to take notes from the lessons learned in West Bengal. So, it’s taking the ‘alliance’ thing to slow in an organized manner. If Congress and CPI(M) want to come together to defeat the BJP, they will have to work more on their coordination than they did in the past.
